Influence of climate changes on the definition of the sex of Aedes Aegypti and its impact on dengue epidemics
Influencia de los cambios climáticos en la definición del sexo en el Aedes Aegypti y su impacto en las epidemias de dengue
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According to the WHO, dengue is considered as the most important viral diseases transmitted by mosquitoes in the world. In the last 50 years, incidence has increased 30 times. According to the report about climate change and biodiversity, it is estimated that the average temperature of the earth’s surface will rise between 1.4 and 5.8°C by the end of the twenty-first century. The aim of the study was to establish the influence of the environmental average temperature on determining the sex of the Aedes aegyoti, and its impact on dengue epidemics, as it has been demonstrated in some species of lizards and tortoises. A correlational ecological study and an experimental study were carried out. The first one calculated a linear regression model between the environmental average temperature of Neiva, Colombia, from 2008 to 2010 and the incidence of dengue in the same periods. In the analysis of results, the regression model calculated for year 2009, 33.10% of the effect of dengue was explained by the environmental average temperature (Prob>F = 0.0007). For the year 2010, the regression model explained 26,05% of the incidence of dengue because of the environmental average temperature (Prob> F =0.0059). According to the model, the increase of 1°C of the environmental average temperature explained the increase in 11.78 cases of dengue. In the experimental study, 600 eggs of Aedes aegypti were exposed to 26°C, 28ºC and 32ºC and sex was determined incluidng the second generation. It was calculated the Odds Ratio between the gotten results at the above-mentioned exposure temperatures. I was found that the chance of being female vs. male at 26°C was 0.78 times (CI = 0.52940-1.16612), while it was 1.78 times (i.e. 78%) (IC = 1.24238 2.55775) at 28°C. It is possible a relationship between the environmental average temperature at 28°C and the increase in the incidence of dengue because of a rise in the male population of Aedes aegypti.
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