Prospective of sustainable tourism in the Tatacoa Desert for the year 2032 Prospectiva de turismo sostenible en el Desierto de la Tatacoa para el año 2032

Abstract

This scientific article presents a study to identify the desired scenario of sustainable tourism in the Tatacoa desert for the year 2032, where the situation of informal tourism was specified without generating a balanced sustainable process coupled with disadvantaged aspects such as the corridor road, the low quality of services, insecurity among other aspects that sustain the lack of planning. Thus, the methodology was based on the prospective study of Mojica (2008), which includes the identification of secondary sources, the identification of the feared, anticipated, and desired vectors of change in the future, the prioritization of strategic variables, the game of the actors, the construction of the possible, probable and desired scenarios for the design of the strategies based on a prospective and strategic plan that will allow to build the best scenario. Under this model, prospective tools such as Régnier's abacus, MicMac, Mactor, Smic Prob, and the importance and governance matrix (IGO) were applied in an integrated manner, which made it possible to build four future scenarios and propose the strategies for the desired bet scenario.