Development of a model for integral planning of water resources in Aipe catchment, Huila, Colombia

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop a hydrological model to understand the impact of climate change scenarios on the water supply for the period, 2011-2050. The Aipe catchment (area 688.9 Km2) in Huila, Colombia was selected for this study. The WEAP model (water evaluation and planning system) was calibrated and validated for the stream flows of the Aipe catchment. The results showed the ability of the model to simulate the daily stream flow (R2 = 0.75). From the simulated scenarios, the baseline (1980-2011) estimated an average flow of 15.31 m3s-1; scenario I estimated a rate 14.88 m3s-1 (-2.81%); scenario II 10.87 m3s-1 (-29%); scenario III 18.98 m3s-1 (+ 23.97%) and scenario IV 5.24 m3s-1 (-65.77%). These flow rates could result in numerous economic problems and social conflicts in terms of drinking water shortages and a decrease in irrigation volumes for agricultural production. The hydrological model developed for the Aipe river catchment is a useful tool to assists the hydrological planning process; its multiple scenarios take into account the numerous, competing uses for water resources. In addition, the WEAP model helps improve the system of integrated management of water resources, and supports decision-making process through reliable knowledge of how to respond to catchments in hydrologic terms considering various climate scenarios and water demand.