Impact of climate change for 2020 in the potential distribution of Achira (Canna indica L.) in Colombia using three models of global movement of the family of emission scenarios A2. Impacto del cambio climático para el 2020 en la distribución potencial de Achira (Canna indica L.) en Colombia usando tres modelos de circulación global de la familia de escenarios de emisión A2

Abstract

The Achira (Canna indica L.) is an important commercial species that generates biomass, which, in turn, contributes to soil improvement among other factors. However, there is no data available on its potential distribution, how it can be affected by climate change in the future, or the food security of people that use the crop for their subsistence. The purpose of this study was to identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Achira for 2020. To do this, we used 70 records obtained from herbariums and GBIF database, bioclimatic layers from WorldClim and CCAFS and Maxent ecological niche algorithm. We then projected this potential distribution to 2020 using three general climate models (GCM) from the A2 Scenario. Our results suggest a widespread presence in nine departments of south, central and western Colombia, and that the impact of climate change would lead to the loss of suitable areas around the central and western Andes and Amazon. It is possible that the species could migrate to higher mountainous regions, which might be explained by a rise in temperature of between 0,2 a 1,4 °C and a rise of 20 to 70 mm in precipitation